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Globalization and the West: Coping With the Politics of Anger
By Holger SchmiedingWhat happens when the need for economic adjustment moves from the global South to the North.For better or worse, we are living in exciting times. On the one hand, globalization and...
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Spain: The Clock Is Ticking
By Holger SchmiedingSpanish voters are dismayed with self-absorbed politicians who are determined to hold yet another national election which few voters want. If no candidate can muster a simple...
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Theresa May Seems To Opt for Hard Brexit
By Holger Schmieding and Kallum PickeringThe UK’s Prime Minister’s emerging strategy for a hard Brexit will mean significantly reduced access to the EU market.UK Prime Minister Theresa May has now...
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Italy: 60% Risk That Renzi Loses
By Holger SchmiedingDespite potential referendum loss, risk of new elections, bigger political upheaval or Italy leaving the euro is quite low.Italy will hold its constitutional referendum vote on...
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How Britain Punishes Itself
By Holger SchmiedingTheresa May’s Brexit plan will do some significant damage to the British economy. Beyond Theresa May’s mellifluous rhetoric in her Lancaster House speech, there are some harsh...
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Britain’s Big Brexit Gamble
By Holger Schmieding and Kallum PickeringThis is the worst setback ever for the process of European integration that started with a six-nation coal and steel community in 1952 – but for whom...
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Theresa May’s Very Iffy Brexit Strategy
By Holger SchmiedingWhat can actually be agreed before the UK leaves the EU?Even in the best case, the uncertainty over the UK’s post-Brexit access to the EU27 market won’t be over when Britain leaves...
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France: Mélenchon for President?
By Holger Schmieding and Florian HenseA run-off between the far right and the far left candidates would be a choice between bad and ugly for France and Europe. Just as the economic upswing is at last...
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The Macron Effect: Can France Overtake Germany Again?
By Holger SchmiedingIt’s not a foregone conclusion that Germany always has the upper hand economically over France.Over the last seven decades, Germany and France have taken their turns at the top....
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Italy: Snap Elections in Late September?
By Holger SchmiedingIs Renzi putting his personal electoral interests over those of his country? And will his gamble pay off?The Italian political risk is back. Ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi told Il...
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Italy: Another Downer for the Populist Wave in Europe
By Holger SchmiedingBeppe Grillo's Five Stars movement loses some of its lustre. With all the attention so firmly focused on the French parliamentary elections, one could be forgiven for overlooking...
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UK: Abdicating a Proud Legacy
By Holger SchmiedingBritain's political situation and its long-term economic outlook have become more precarious than they have been at any time since the late 1970s. Britain is a great country. It...
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The Germans Follow Keynes’ Advice!
By Holger SchmiedingIf anything, the German Problem is complacency, not the current account surplus.Is Germany not consuming enough? At 55%, the share of consumption in German GDP is lower than in most...
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German Political Update: Merkel’s Choice
By Holger SchmiedingAngela Merkel looks set for a comfortable win in next month's German elections. But which coalition partner will she choose? Seven weeks ahead of the German election on 24...
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Crunch Time in Paris
By Holger SchmiedingWill Macron deliver? And what will French economic reforms mean for all of Europe?Although his popularity has nosedived over the holiday period, French president Emmanuel Macron...
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The German Consensus Machine
By Holger SchmiedingDon’t look for major policy changes in Germany after the September 24 federal elections.Sunday evening’s only TV debate between German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and her...
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Germany’s SPD: To Serve or Not to Serve under Merkel?
By Holger SchmiedingThe election and subsequent choice of coalition matter. But the differences between the various options are modest rather than stark.Just ahead of the German election on September...
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Spain’s Catalan Independence Intermezzo
By Holger SchmiedingAs much as quite a few Catalans may want independence from Spain, it is practically impossible. But more regional autonomy is certainly possible.The Catalan regional government has...
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Your 12 Point Guide to the German Elections
By Holger SchmiedingHere's what you need to know about Germany’s September 24 elections.1. Chancellor Merkel looks set to win a fourth term. 2. Protest parties may do better than expected, but they...
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Catalan Questions
By Holger SchmiedingWhat's ahead for Catalonia, Spain and the EU following the tumultuous Catalan independence referendum?Yesterday’s contested referendum will make headlines for a while. Although it...
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